This question was posed by Sam A – Dallas, Texas. Potentially, the current drought could worsen, rivaling the Dust-bowl era. Already corn, soybeans, wheat and other crops have been affected by as much as 60 percent. This will cause a general slow, steady rise in food prices. If the drought lasts 6 or more months, generally water restrictions will be implemented, energy, fuel, and transportation costs will rise, other foodstuffs such as vegetables, etc. will increase, and migration from rural to urban areas could ensue. All of this was noted during the 1995 Texas drought disaster that lasted only 8 months and was smaller in scale that what we’re currently experiencing. If we have a generally early winter and or late spring, effects can change dramatically for a summer drought. Remember, drought is called ‘the creeping hazard’ and some refer to it as the creeping killer. This is because it starts slowly and is initially imperceptible then, depending on rainfall and basic climate conditions, it can worsen quickly and cause significantly more damage than the world’s worst terrorist, especially if it occurs in late summer and there is a hard, cold winter.
Let us look at an example. Hurricane Katrina wiped out the entire city of New Orleans, which is a large city. By comparison, a drought can affect millions such as the 1930s Dust Bowl; the 1995 Texas drought, which caused $10 to $15 billion in damages (lasted less than 6 months), the drought in South Africa, the recent one in Brazil, and on and on. We have no control of them once they begin and the effects can be national to global.
The header image is courtesy of NASA and shows that as of August 2020, 1/3 of the U.S. was in serious drought conditions. Look at the correlation of where the major hot spots are versus the wildfires in California, Colorado, and Arizona, not to mention the northwest U.S. We have a growing population, which short-circuits the hydrologic cycle over time. What does this mean? Let us look at California; it is classified generally as a Mediterranean-type climate; as such it will potentially support 5-8 million people in the entire state with natural resources such as water, food, etc. However, the population is about 40 million or, 5 to 8 times more than it is capable of supporting naturally. As a result, it is like a giant octopus sucking resources from the entire rest of the U.S. Los Angeles for example, gets 50 percent of its water supply from the Colorado River via the Colorado River Aqueduct originating at the Parker-Davies dam.
As the supply of the river has diminished, so has the amount of water going to the state. Couple this with the fact that thousands of acres per year in Los Angeles and throughout southern California are put under concrete and asphalt, destroying natural vegetation and you have a serious problem. Doing this greatly diminishes/stops the evapo-transpiration cycle of plants into the hydrologic cycle, which is a major source of rainfall. The land slowly dries out and when it does rain, the soil is so oxidized that runoff is almost immediate further driving the slow desiccation process. Add the fact that controlled burns are no longer done (for over 100 years) leaving forests and shrub lands full of fuel and you have a veritable tender box ready to explode as we are now witnessing. No, it is not climate change/global warming that has caused this, but poor governance, the greed for more property-tax dollars to fund that poor governance, moronic regulations, and overpopulation compared to sustainable populations based on natural resources. Due to national taxes, regulations, disaster relief, and related issues, this will affect every American – yes you – and it is why there is so much more to survival than just guns and ammo.
Prepare now for the potential that can confront you from natural hazards and more. Why? Because a major drought will affect all agricultural food and products prices, potentially increasing them to the un-affordable level, and can be national in scope. A major drought will also cause energy price increases and more. Below is a list of the major happenings during the 1995 Texas drought that was short-lived, albeit devastating.
Economically – reduced water supply led to:
- Decreased vegetable production with related job and income losses;
- Food prices increased 22 percent in response to the lower production levels for milk, meat, produce, and other foodstuffs;
- Prices for gasoline, diesel, and liquefied petroleum rose 15 percent above previous levels;
- Extensive population migration from rural areas to cities to find jobs; and
- Total regional drought impacts were estimated at $10–15 billion (discounting social and environmental impacts).
This extended drought demonstrates the significant level of vulnerability, diversity of impacts, and the effects such impacts can have on a myriad of people and water-security risks.
For now, expect the effects to work their way through the feed, animal, wholesale, and finally retail pricing with a likely minimum rise of 4 percent in food prices by December and an additional increase of about the same in early 2013, which will be substantially higher if the drought worsens and will be more rapid (2-3 time more) than overall U.S. inflation. If air temperatures rise to 97-100 degrees for 7-10 consecutive days, most of the current crops will be totally destroyed, which will greatly worsen the conditions and outcomes stated above. Internationally, the worst-case scenario could be catastrophic since more than 100 countries depend on our Midwest U.S. food production. If you are investing in the stock market I would invest long-term in exchange traded funds (ETF’s) in this order –> food –> water –> energy.