This article is about the release of a new survival book that is featured in the image above. Click here to buy the book or, in about one month it should be in book stores near you so that you can look through it.
I am a firm believer in go-bags, survival skills of all kinds, security, and other preparedness needs. The outlook for the U.S. in terms of the next 1-5 years indicates increasing violence, less security, ever more disastrous politics and tyrannical government control, increasing natural disasters in both frequency and intensity, and potential short- to long-term food shortages. This is a short list, there is more. However, this indicates that long-term survival strategy is rapidly changing and will continue to change in the near to long term.The cumulative effects of the Covid-19 virus and what it will morph into, which is no different than a common flu, but that has been politically weaponized, will be an issue to be reckoned with both now and in the future, if for no other reason than political entities have discovered how to control the masses rapidly.
Our future is more uncertain than ever. The violent ramping up of the terrorist Antifa movement and what they represent, coupled with lessening the power of law enforcement and putting the burden on the average person to protect themselves, makes us wonder what is coming in the next few months or year? Are you prepared? I want you to put on your thinking cap and just for a moment, stop looking at guns, go bags, starting fires, and typical survival principles. Instead, look at a longer-term strategy on what you may need to deal with. We have entered a time of never-ending crises. Prepare yourselves. Many articles have talked about getting out of ‘Dodge’ as it were and escaping to some off-grid location or safe haven. However, most of that lately has revolved around fleeing from natural disasters that affect a substantial portion of a geographic area. Too many people pay little attention to geopolitics, water, energy, and food trends, and causal effects related to critical infrastructure and interdependent causes. What do I mean by that?
Let us look at the recent virus. It has caused toilet paper, food stuffs, and meat shortages, as well as reduction in work hours and revenue earned and shifted the control of the balance of survival to favor those who you must not trust. It has also disrupted supply lines due to ship-on-demand policies of major companies and is putting the average family in severe jeopardy.
In southern Colorado on September 9, 2020, we received the earliest snowfall on record since 1898. At the time of this writing more than 4.6 million acres of forests have burned in the western U.S. with many more acres continuing to burn. The effects of those fires will last for years with the immediate effect, due to blankets of heavy smoke, being a more rapid cool down of temperatures in the west and Midwest U.S. This is just a part of the interdependent effects we need to understand. Let us look at more.
China experienced its worst flooding in over 100 years, especially in the modern era since the construction of the Three Gorges Dam. Twenty percent of the global supply of corn (maize) along with many fruits and vegetables, are grown within the Yangtze flood basin. China is also the world’s largest producer of barley, cotton, millet, peanuts, potatoes, tomatoes, soybeans, tea, and wheat. The bulk of these food crops also are cultivated in the Yangtze flood basin. Additionally, the basin is also the region of China where beef, chicken, and pigs are raised for meat. Over 30 percent of the world’s supply of chicken and eggs are farmed in this basin.
Elsewhere, Covid-19, has caused global riots due to lock-down and thus, interference in supply-chain continuance; food prices have been rising steadily with the effects felt globally. For example, supermarket suppliers in Australia warn of a national food shortage due to the virus lock-down in that country. Coupled with that is a shortage of domestically grown rice, soon projected to run out. Furthermore, as agricultural commodities such as wheat and dairy trade at record highs, some governments, such as Russia, are implementing price controls on selected types of bread, cheese, milk, eggs, and vegetable oil. This is not something seen on the nightly news in the U.S. due to political polarization of the two parties. It should also be mentioned that the reduced agricultural production causes a reduction in plant bio fuels and thus, an increase in their price with a consequent increase in shipping prices — for everything.
Tragically, the above is not all. The most serious locust outbreak in 70 years (2019-2021) is threatening the food supply across many regions of East Africa, as well as the Arabian Peninsula, and the Indian subcontinent. The outbreak is from desert locusts; it is the worst in 25 years in Ethiopia, Somalia, and India. It comes as many of the countries in the region are already struggling to manage food insecurity caused by COVID-19. But wait, there is more. Large parts of South America are in the grip of a serious drought, which began to appear in satellite gravimetry observations in mid-2018. It has spread to parts Bolivia, Paraguay, and northern Argentina. You may be asking, “why does this matter?”
All of this matters because of the local to global implications, more importantly, it is out of your control, but can greatly impact you in the not-distant future. First it has affected local crop yields, which means diminished export capacity to other countries that rely on the food grown in the affected areas. It thus affects employment and these countries’ economies. The water problem is particularly significant due to lowering of the water levels of the Paraguay River, which has reached the lowest levels in over 500 years. This is important because this river connects landlocked Paraguay to the rest of the world, as well as serving as the country’s primary export and import route. This means that ships and barges traveling in and out of the country must do so with reduced loads pushing food and energy up while significantly reducing labor prices. This is the type of cascading failure effect seen within water, energy, and food security.
These issues will cascade to other countries. Environmentally, the longer a drought lasts, the more damage it causes and the more difficult it is to get back to normal agricultural production. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s is a good example. The Sahel, a semiarid region in north-central Africa has never recovered as rainfall diminished due to ever dying plant life pushing the Sahel belt further south every year. Much of the pressure on plant life has been from the people using it as a fuel for cooking and other uses. One country after another becomes affected, which causes long term struggles to secure vital supplies, including food, fertilizer, fuel, and drinking water. Droughts, the creeping hazard, are becoming a growing trend across the globe and with them comes an increasing threat to water, energy, and food security.
Flooding and drought are major considerations that can be the causal factor of global food insecurity and they are spreading quickly. Thus far, we have seen virus lock-downs and riots on a large scale. What is next? What will the effects of larger droughts or flooding be? In simple terms, too much water reduces yields and or kills crops, and too little water, i.e., drought, has the same effect, as well as a great many other effects. Both can occur in the same year such as when harvesting winter wheat, planting summer crops, and, harvesting them in the fall. With that in mind, let me close with an example of the results of a short-term drought.
The 1995 Texas Drought
As you may understand from the above discussion, a drought reduces water supply overall. In 1995 in Texas, a drought lasting less than 5 months led to total regional drought impacts ranging from $10 to $15 billion (discounting social and environmental impacts) and affected many surrounding and regional states. The major effects included:
- Decreased vegetable production with related job and income losses.
- Food prices increased 22 percent in response to the lower production levels for milk, meat, produce, and other foodstuffs.
- Prices for gasoline, diesel, and liquefied petroleum rose 15 percent above earlier levels.
- Extensive population migration from rural areas to cities to find jobs.
- Severe water restrictions cut usage by 25 percent.
- Winter wheat production in 19 states was extremely poor.
- Wind and insect damage reduced crop production and drastically reduced yields.
- Shortage of hay reached disastrous proportions resulting in cattle and other livestock starving.
- $5 billion damage in Texas alone for agricultural losses — cotton, wheat, feed grains, cattle, corn, and agriculturally related industries such as harvesting, trucking, and food processing.
What I wish to emphasize is that the Texas drought shows the significant level of vulnerability, diversity of impacts, and the effects such impacts can have on a myriad of food-security risks for all of us.
I discussed these issues with various universities and government agencies, and some states, including the effects of severe wildfires and what would happen, as well as congressional liaisons, congressmen/women, and other countries a decade ago. The only ones who listened were other countries in Central America. Now, a serious disaster could be at our doors. Currently, few are talking about the above, in addition to crop devastation across Africa, Middle East, India, and China, and shortfalls in the U.S.
Acres of Dead Corn 1995 Texas Drought (Courtesy USDA).
This coming winter (2021-2022), due to our being in a Grand Solar Minimum, could potentially bring the following:
- Continued drought in the Southwest (this could result in a 40 percent water reduction to Los Angeles from Lake Meade due to water levels in the lake).
- Heavy snow and cold in the Midwest that can cause serious problems during harvest due to wet fields, as well as if it gets very wet before freezing up; it will add to yield and harvest problems. It can also mean fields too wet to plant in spring or delayed planting resulting in potential yield disaster if there is an early fall/winter in 2021.
- National food disruption leading to massive civil unrest.
- Energy shortages leading to transportation and logistical problems spurring the above crises.
- Large natural disasters causing massive migrations, chaos, and disorder, as if the recent riots were not bad enough.
- Other issues there is insufficient room to discuss.
There is another issue you should become intimately familiar with because your life and those of your family and friends could depend on it. It is something you have no control over. This is critical infrastructures because, working cohesively, they drive industrialized society. The photo below lists them in levels (the top level is most important). You should be keenly aware that the most critical infrastructures are power (energy) that drives business, homes, and government. If power fails across the nation due to an EMP, solar storm, etc., we will be back to about 1850 in the blink of an eye. The other two most critical are water and communications. The following image, copyright James Tindall, shows the relation of critical infrastructure to the three types of hazards. All of these are out of your control. If you’re an urban dweller, learning the specifics of food storage and other needs is advisable; it is also vital for those in rural areas. No matter where you live, get in tune with global events that will affect you. The book goes into more detail on these issues. You need more of a long-term strategy than ‘go-bags’ and guns. Happy learning.
